South Africa is in a tough spot. I’ve written about this previously, noting that I couldn’t see South Africa changing track without competition to the one-party state. This seems to be happening. For the first time since ’94, the ANC won less than 50% of the municipal vote. This says nothing for what will happen in the national election, but more and more folk are starting to predict the ANC losing an outright majority.
This is interesting for several reasons:
1. The ANC will potentially need to rule in a coalition government.
2. Upstart parties will believe for the first time they have a real shot at power sharing
3. The ANC will potentially do anything it can to remain in power
The first two points are clearly net positive for South Africa. In political terms, it has been a relatively quick process for South Africa to go from a new democracy with one party winning 70% of the vote, to that party losing out and out control. The trouble with one party winning a majority in election every time is that a) that party gets complacent in delivery and b) everyone else, including potential upstarts and citizens in general have no interest in politics as ‘the ANC is going to win and do what they want to anyway’. This is evidenced through dramatically declining voter turnout in South Africa. No-one cares when the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
If this could realistically change this time out, you’d hope to see increased voter turnout (especially amongst the youth who are the most disillusioned and have the most to gain from an improved system) as voters think there is a real possibility of a new regime coming into power. The knock-on effect of the ANC losing votes, is competitors gaining votes and more importantly, gaining belief. There is no motivator like the thought of actual victory. This hasn’t been possible historically and is probably the reason why no upstart parties took hold in South African politics (bar the DA, who were there to start with). The first party to buck this trend was the EFF, who although seemingly capped at c. 10% of the vote, showed others how to compete effectively and build staying power. This is critical for political funders. Launching and growing parties isn’t cheap. In order to get backing, you need a realistic chance of governing, which the EFF showed is possible, and the ANC’s continual decline makes and ever more likely.
The EFF won support by building up grass-roots support in rural areas, traditionally an ANC stronghold. Winning urban votes is great, but won’t win you an election (as the DA has found out time and time again). A new upstart, Action SA, is following a similar strategy to the EFF. While they only ran in a few metros around Johannesburg (where their leader Herman Mashaba is best known), they have since expanded their branch network across the country. Their political views are starkly different from the EFF, but their strategy in building a party seems quite similar. They have the benefit of being widely diverse and not being tainted like the DA is — they could be credible opposition, but time will tell.
The final point is that the ANC knows it is losing power, and the ANC is not one single minded entity. There are parts of the ANC that aren’t afraid to use any tactics necessary to remain in power. As they become more desperate, this could spell a dangerous time in South Africa. Anything that appeals to South Africans will be on the table, no matter how offensive or destructive it may seem to some. They may also flatly refuse to give up power, in whichever shape that takes.
Transitions are rarely pretty. South Africa already has the remarkable achievement of transitioning from apartheid to democracy with limited violence. Transition is now coming again, and while this offers new hope to South Africa for the future, it could also bring danger as those transitioning out of power don’t go quietly.