Interesting piece, James. Looking at the outcomes of the next election in the scenario where the ANC has less than 50%, who would they be best incetivised to form a partnership with? Their core remaining electorate would probably find the EFF most palatable given the manner in which the DA has alienated black voters over the past few years, but one would hope that Ramaphosa would prevent this happening against the wishes of some in his party (Mashatile et al). Big few months for ActionSA, the DA and indeed the country.
Thanks and agreed - will be very interesting, with many different outcomes possible.
One question - where do you get insight into the desires of the 'core remaining electorate' of the ANC? I assume you are talking about the rural vote (the ANC has been losing votes in urban centres for a number of years) and I've never seen any research into desires or voting motivations of this group.
Thanks James, that assumption is what I'm referencing. There is a general trend of rural voters leaning more towards the ANC / EFF vs urban voters demonstrating more DA support, evidenced through what we've seen in the municipal elections of the large metros as well as older (2019 election) polling data. This polling (https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/saf_r7_presentation_southafrica_voting_intentions_and_partisanship_30102018.pdf) was conducted in 2018, and slides 16 and 17 set out some interesting demographic trends which I think are still somewhat relevant to next year's election.
Thanks hadn't seen that before. Would be interested if they did a more recent one, and how their polling is done. On the coalitions, it obviously depends on how much the ANC actually needed. If they were just below 50% I'd assume they'd join with a very small party to keep power. If they need a relatively large party like the EFF to get into power it'll be a chaotic few years for sure. Best case long-term is a 2-party state. Unfortunately quite unlikely with proportional representation system - more likely to have a German-style shambles for the next few elections.
Thanks man appreciate that. Was actually thinking of quoting Charlie Munger in it but thought it was a bit much. Maybe I should have though would have saved a whole paragraph!
Interesting piece, James. Looking at the outcomes of the next election in the scenario where the ANC has less than 50%, who would they be best incetivised to form a partnership with? Their core remaining electorate would probably find the EFF most palatable given the manner in which the DA has alienated black voters over the past few years, but one would hope that Ramaphosa would prevent this happening against the wishes of some in his party (Mashatile et al). Big few months for ActionSA, the DA and indeed the country.
Hi Andre
Thanks and agreed - will be very interesting, with many different outcomes possible.
One question - where do you get insight into the desires of the 'core remaining electorate' of the ANC? I assume you are talking about the rural vote (the ANC has been losing votes in urban centres for a number of years) and I've never seen any research into desires or voting motivations of this group.
Thanks James, that assumption is what I'm referencing. There is a general trend of rural voters leaning more towards the ANC / EFF vs urban voters demonstrating more DA support, evidenced through what we've seen in the municipal elections of the large metros as well as older (2019 election) polling data. This polling (https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/migrated/files/saf_r7_presentation_southafrica_voting_intentions_and_partisanship_30102018.pdf) was conducted in 2018, and slides 16 and 17 set out some interesting demographic trends which I think are still somewhat relevant to next year's election.
Thanks hadn't seen that before. Would be interested if they did a more recent one, and how their polling is done. On the coalitions, it obviously depends on how much the ANC actually needed. If they were just below 50% I'd assume they'd join with a very small party to keep power. If they need a relatively large party like the EFF to get into power it'll be a chaotic few years for sure. Best case long-term is a 2-party state. Unfortunately quite unlikely with proportional representation system - more likely to have a German-style shambles for the next few elections.
Brilliantly written. Not a commonly held belief but one that's well articulated!
Reminds me of one of my favourite sayings: "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome".
Thanks man appreciate that. Was actually thinking of quoting Charlie Munger in it but thought it was a bit much. Maybe I should have though would have saved a whole paragraph!